Disney’s live-action adaptation of Moana opens this weekend, but early projections suggest it could underperform at the box office, potentially marking Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s second consecutive flop. As seen in a trending post on r/boxoffice, the film has received over 1,000 upvotes and 200 comments discussing its prospects.
Why it matters: The movie is expected to earn between $50 million and $85 million in its opening weekend, significantly below expectations. This could impact Disney's financial outlook and Johnson's standing as a box office draw.
- Last month, projections indicated Moana would bring in $85 million, but recent estimates from Box Office Pro now suggest a range of $60 million to $70 million.
- The film reportedly carries a production budget of around $250 million, excluding marketing costs.
- Critics have noted that live-action adaptations of animated classics often struggle to match their predecessors' success.
Driving the news: The film had a rocky start even before its release, with negative audience reactions reported following its premiere in Los Angeles. The Hollywood Reporter noted that attendees had mixed to hostile reactions, questioning the necessity of the remake.
- Initial presale ticket trends for Moana were described as sluggish, raising concerns about its potential box office performance.
- Industry analysts attribute the underwhelming presales to franchise fatigue, as audiences recently enjoyed Moana 2, which grossed over $1 billion globally in 2024.
- Johnson's portrayal of Maui was initially anticipated to draw crowds, but the excitement may have waned due to the film's proximity to its animated predecessor.
State of play: The competition for family audiences is fierce this summer, with multiple high-profile releases scheduled around the same time.
- Universal Pictures is releasing Minions & Monsters just a week before Moana, which is likely to dominate family ticket sales.
- The following week, Universal will launch The Odyssey, a historical epic starring Matt Damon, which could siphon off premium screen space from Moana.
- Disney's recent history with live-action remakes shows a mixed track record, with some films becoming major hits, but others failing dramatically.
The big picture: Disney's strategy of remaking beloved animated films has been lucrative but increasingly risky.
- Films like The Lion King (2019) and Beauty and the Beast (2017) grossed over $1 billion, but recent flops like Snow White have raised questions about the sustainability of this approach.
- Tim Robey, film critic for The Telegraph, highlighted that the timing of the Moana remake feels rushed, coming just a decade after the original.
- Critics have pointed out that the visual quality of the live-action adaptation does not match the vibrant animation of the original.
What they're saying: Audience sentiment appears divided, with some expressing skepticism about the necessity of another Moana film so soon after the sequel.
- Comments on social media have included criticism of Johnson's wig and visuals, with some likening the film to a "faded photocopy" of the original.
- One commenter noted that the film's release feels like a cash grab rather than a genuine artistic endeavor.
- Others have pointed out that the live-action format may not resonate with audiences who are still fond of the original animated film.
By the numbers: The financial stakes for Moana are high, with the film needing substantial box office returns to break even.
- With a budget of $250 million, Moana needs to earn at least $500 million globally to be considered profitable.
- The film currently holds a 36% score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 42 on Metacritic, indicating mixed to negative reviews from critics.
- Early audience reactions from screenings have been more favorable, but it is uncertain if this will translate into ticket sales.
What's next: As the opening weekend approaches, Disney's marketing efforts are ramping up in hopes of boosting interest.
- Promotional partnerships and new trailers are being deployed to attract audiences to theaters.
- Johnson's social media presence may also play a role in driving ticket sales, as he has a large following.
- Disney has announced plans for a third animated feature in the franchise, which could help maintain interest in the brand.
As the live-action Moana prepares for its debut, the industry watches closely to see if it will succeed or join the ranks of Disney's recent box office disappointments.
This article is grounded in a discussion trending on Reddit. Claims from the original post and comments may not reflect independently verified reporting.