Michael Jackson's biopic, Michael, is set to dominate the box office this weekend, with projections estimating a domestic opening between $65 million and $70 million across 3,900 North American theaters.
Why it matters: If successful, Michael could achieve the largest debut ever for a musical biopic, surpassing 2018's Bohemian Rhapsody ($51 million) and 2015's Straight Outta Compton ($60 million).
Exhibitors expect the film's final domestic number could reach closer to $80 million, driven by strong advance ticket sales, especially in premium formats like IMAX.
Internationally, the film is projected to earn between $75 million and $80 million from 82 markets, contributing to a potential global total of $140 million to $150 million by Sunday.
With a production budget of $200 million, Michael is one of the most expensive music biopics ever made, raising concerns about its financial viability.
Driving the news: Directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Jaafar Jackson as Michael Jackson, the film chronicles the pop icon's rise from the Jackson 5 to his solo success with albums like Off the Wall and Thriller.
The film's Hollywood premiere was held at the Dolby Theatre, where it received enthusiastic applause throughout its 127-minute runtime.
Jaafar Jackson expressed hopes that his uncle would be proud, stating, "Most important, I just hope that my uncle, Michael, is smiling from up above."
Colman Domingo and Nia Long portray Michael's parents, Joe and Katherine Jackson, respectively.
State of play: The film's release has faced delays and challenges, including legal issues surrounding the depiction of a 1993 lawsuit accusing Michael Jackson of child sexual abuse.
Producers had to rework the story to focus on Michael's relationship with his father, Joe Jackson, leading to a year-long delay.
The Jackson estate funded an additional $15 million for reshoots after realizing they could not legally depict the accuser.
Lionsgate hopes to gross at least $700 million globally, with plans for sequels if the film performs well.
The big picture:Michael is positioned as a major player in the summer box office, particularly as it opens against limited competition.
It is the only major release this weekend, allowing it to capture a larger share of the audience.
The reigning box office champion, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, is expected to drop to second place after three weeks in the top spot.
After a strong April, the box office is up 16% compared to the same time last year, setting a positive tone for May releases.
What they're saying: Critics have not been kind to Michael, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of just 34% based on early reviews.
Mixed reactions highlight concerns that the film sanitizes Michael Jackson's complex legacy, with some reviews calling it a "ghoulish, soulless cash grab."
Others, including industry insiders, note that scathing reviews rarely impact box office performance significantly.
One attendee of a test screening described the experience as emotional, saying, "I sat at the edge of my seat for three hours."
By the numbers: The film's financial outlook remains precarious, considering its hefty production costs.
With a $200 million budget, the film needs to perform exceptionally well at the box office to break even, especially after accounting for marketing costs.
Domestic projections of $65 million to $70 million fall short of earlier forecasts that anticipated an opening closer to $85 million to $90 million.
Internationally, the film is expected to earn $75 million to $80 million from territories including the UK, Ireland, China, Mexico, and Germany.
What's next: As the film rolls out globally, its performance will be closely monitored by industry analysts.
Future plans for sequels hinge on the film's ability to recoup its production costs, with Lionsgate eyeing potential follow-ups.
Upcoming releases, including Disney's The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Warner Bros.' Mortal Kombat 2, could impact Michael's box office run in the coming weeks.
With releases in Korea set for May 13 and Japan in June, international ticket sales may still provide a boost to the film's earnings.