A proposed deal between Iran and Oman could grant Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, marking a potential shift in regional power dynamics after five months of conflict with the United States. The negotiations have sparked intense discussions, as President Donald Trump claims a deal is imminent, but U.S. officials remain adamant that they will not accept Iranian control of this key waterway.
Why it matters: Control over the Strait of Hormuz is a major concession to Iran, potentially altering the balance of power in the region.
The deal would allow Iran to oversee traffic through the strait, a strategic passage for global oil supplies.
This arrangement reflects a dramatic shift, as the strait was previously open to all vessels without fees.
Iran's control could escalate tensions with U.S. allies in the Gulf, raising concerns about energy security.
Driving the news: Talks between Iran and Oman have reportedly made "significant progress," with both inbound and outbound shipping routes set to pass through Iranian waters.
President Trump indicated that an announcement about the deal could come as early as Wednesday.
The arrangement is said to be temporary for 60 days, during which no tolls or fees would be charged.
Negotiations have included discussions about clearing naval mines from the strait within 30 days.
State of play: Regional sources caution that substantial issues remain unresolved, casting doubt on the timeline for any agreement.
One source mentioned that Gulf negotiators are insisting on regional supervision of inspections and voluntary payments.
Iran is seeking fees of 5% to 7% of cargo prices, whereas Oman proposes around 3%, and Washington desires no fees at all.
Discussions are complicated by Iran's recent military actions against U.S. allies and commercial vessels in the region.
The big picture: The proposed deal is part of broader diplomatic efforts aimed at resuming ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that talks have reached fundamental understandings, indicating progress.
Failure to finalize the deal could lead to renewed military actions, as Trump has hinted at potential strikes if negotiations falter.
Polling indicates that U.S. voters largely oppose continued military engagement, putting pressure on Trump to find a diplomatic resolution.
What they're saying: Officials on both sides have expressed cautious optimism about the potential agreement.
Trump claimed that the negotiations are progressing well and that the Strait of Hormuz would "be open very soon."
Conversely, U.S. officials have repeatedly emphasized that they will not accept any arrangement allowing Iran to control the strait.
"The devil is in the details. A single tweet from Trump could cause the whole thing to collapse," an Iranian source warned.
By the numbers: The stakes are high, with the Strait of Hormuz representing a key transit point for global oil supplies.
Approximately 20% of the world's oil passes through this narrow waterway.
Iran's demands for fees, if accepted, could generate substantial revenue from shipping traffic.
U.S. military operations in the region have included a two-week campaign of strikes, which have not succeeded in diminishing Iran's influence.
What's next: The outcome of these negotiations could significantly affect regional stability and U.S. foreign policy.
Should the deal be finalized, it may alter the dynamics of U.S. military strategy in the Middle East.
The next few days are likely to be decisive, as both sides weigh their options and the implications of the proposed agreement.
Trump faces mounting pressure to deliver results ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, where public sentiment is against continued military action.