Voters in Makerfield will head to the polls on June 18, 2026, for a by-election that could have consequences for the future of British politics. The contest, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, is shaping up to be a tight race between Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.
Why it matters: The outcome of this by-election could signal a shift in political power in the UK. A victory for Burnham could bolster his challenge against Sir Keir Starmer for Labour leadership, whereas a win for Kenyon could indicate a broader collapse of Labour’s support in traditional strongholds.
The Makerfield seat has historically been a Labour stronghold, making the by-election particularly contentious.
A win for Burnham might position him as a frontrunner to lead Labour, especially after calls for Starmer to resign following poor local election results.
If Kenyon wins, it could pave the way for a potential Nigel Farage premiership, signaling a major shift in voter sentiment.
Driving the news: Recent polling suggests a close contest, with Burnham leading Kenyon by just three points in the first constituency poll. This close margin reflects a volatile political atmosphere where every vote counts.
The Survation poll conducted between May 26 and June 1 surveyed 518 adults, indicating a high level of engagement among constituents.
Burnham's campaign emphasizes a need for change within Labour, aiming to address issues that have been overlooked by Westminster.
Kenyon, positioning himself as a working-class candidate, aims to capitalize on discontent with the establishment.
State of play: The candidates are gearing up for a series of hustings, where they will face questions from constituents on pressing issues.
Burnham has framed his candidacy as a chance to “change Labour,” promising to focus on areas often neglected by politicians.
Kenyon, who previously lost to Labour by 5,399 votes in the last general election, has gained momentum following a strong showing in local elections.
Other parties, including Restore UK and the Green Party, are also contesting, potentially splitting the vote among right-leaning candidates.
The big picture: The Makerfield by-election is more than just a local contest; it reflects broader trends in British politics, especially concerning Labour's waning influence.
Polling indicates that Labour may struggle to maintain its foothold in former strongholds, raising questions about the party's future.
Kenyon's controversial past on social media, including sexist remarks and pro-Russian sentiments, could impact his campaign, though he dismisses these as “locker room banter.”
Burnham’s return to Parliament could signal a new direction for Labour, especially if he successfully challenges Starmer.
What they're saying: The candidates have been vocal about their visions for Makerfield, with both facing scrutiny from the public and media.
Burnham stated, “This is not business as usual. We need to focus on the places Westminster usually looks past.”
Kenyon described his candidacy as a “win-win” situation, claiming he is ready to take on Burnham, whom he refers to as a “political titan.”
Kenyon has faced backlash over his past comments on social media, which he described as “taken out of contextual” but acknowledged he has made mistakes.
By the numbers: Key statistics from the polling and previous elections highlight the competitive nature of this by-election.
The first constituency poll shows Burnham leading Kenyon by three points, indicating a close race.
In the last general election, Kenyon lost by 5,399 votes, demonstrating the potential for a shift in voter sentiment.
Kenyon’s party, Reform UK, won every ward in the constituency during the most recent local elections.
Between the lines: The dynamics of this by-election suggest that voter sentiment is shifting, with traditional allegiances being tested.
Kenyon's rise reflects a growing frustration among voters with established political parties, particularly Labour.
Burnham's candidacy is seen as a potential revival for Labour, but his success hinges on addressing constituents' concerns effectively.
The presence of multiple candidates from smaller parties may complicate the voting dynamics, potentially benefiting either Burnham or Kenyon.
What's next: Candidates will participate in several events leading up to the June 18 election, where they will engage directly with voters.
Hustings scheduled for Thursday will allow candidates to present their platforms and answer questions from the public.
As the election date approaches, both Burnham and Kenyon will likely ramp up their campaigning efforts, seeking to sway undecided voters.
The outcome of this by-election could set the stage for future political contests, influencing party strategies heading into the next general election.