The Atlantic hurricane season, which peaked on September 10, 2026, is showing signs of activity as forecasters monitor a disturbance that may develop into a tropical depression.
Why it matters: The Atlantic hurricane season remains a concern for coastal residents, even as it has been historically quiet this year. Experts warn that late-season storms can still pose serious threats.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance located east-southeast of Bermuda, which has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week.
Conditions could improve for storm development as the system moves westward over the subtropical Atlantic.
The hurricane season runs until November 30, 2026, meaning there’s still time for storms to form and impact the U.S. coastline.
Driving the news: On September 15, 2026, the National Hurricane Center reported that the disturbance was generating disorganized rain and storms, indicating potential for development.
If the disturbance organizes into a tropical storm, it will be named Fay.
Forecasters noted that the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season passed without any major storms, marking a historical first since satellite records began in 1966.
Only five weak tropical storms have formed so far this season: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
State of play: The Atlantic hurricane season is currently characterized by a historic calm, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) tracking at its lowest level since 1950.
Florida Climatologist Emily Powell emphasized that Florida rarely escapes direct tropical impacts for consecutive years based on a 175-year instrumental record.
Experts caution against complacency, noting that it only takes one storm to make it a bad hurricane season.
Currently, strong atmospheric barriers and high wind shear due to a strengthening El Niño are keeping conditions unfavorable for storm development.
The big picture: The Atlantic hurricane season has seen a slow start, but historical patterns suggest that activity often ramps up after mid-September.
About half of a normal season's activity occurs after the mid-September peak, meaning residents should remain vigilant.
Emergency management officials at Florida State University (FSU) are actively preparing students for potential storm impacts, emphasizing the importance of emergency plans and survival kits.
FSU officials encourage students to download the SeminoleSAFE mobile app for immediate updates and alerts related to weather conditions.
What they're saying: Curtis Sommerhoff, FSU Director of Emergency Management, said, “It only takes one storm to make it a bad hurricane season for us.”
Powell reiterated, “We are right at the peak of hurricane season. Conditions in much of the basin remain unfavorable for storm development.”
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center have reminded coastal residents, “Late-starting years can still produce hurricane impacts — so stay prepared!”
By the numbers: The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, 2026, with the potential for late-season activity still present.
September 10 marked the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which passed without any major storm formation.
Historically, only five weak tropical storms have emerged in the 2026 season so far.
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is at its lowest level since 1950, indicating minimal storm strength and duration this season.
Between the lines: The current atmospheric conditions are a mix of favorable and unfavorable elements, making forecasts uncertain.
Warm sea surface temperatures typically fuel storm growth; yet high wind shear and dry air from the Sahara have hindered development.
As conditions evolve, forecasters will continue to monitor the disturbance closely for any changes that could lead to tropical storm formation.
What's next: Residents along the U.S. coast should remain informed and prepared as the hurricane season progresses.
Students at FSU are advised to stay indoors during severe weather and utilize the academic FSU Emergency Module built into Canvas for continuity in coursework.
Emergency management personnel recommend having a plan in place and being ready to act should a storm threaten the region.
With the potential for a tropical depression forming later this week, updates from the National Hurricane Center will be closely watched.