Forecasters are watching two systems in the Atlantic that may develop into Tropical Storm Dolly this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has indicated that the window for development is narrowing for one of these systems near Bermuda.
Why it matters: The potential formation of Tropical Storm Dolly highlights the current activity in a slow hurricane season. With only three named storms so far, the forecast models are being closely monitored.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November 30, featuring only three named storms: Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal.
Forecasters expect between seven and 13 named storms this year, with two to six becoming hurricanes and possibly no major hurricanes or at most two.
The height of hurricane season typically runs from mid-August through mid-October.
Driving the news: As of Tuesday morning, forecasters identified two systems of interest: Invest 95L and Invest 96L. Both systems have potential to develop, but their chances vary significantly.
Invest 95L is located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda, moving north-northeast at 15 to 20 mph with disorganized shower activity.
This system has a 40% chance of strengthening over the next two days, but it is expected to encounter hostile conditions by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Invest 96L, in the eastern tropical Atlantic, has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days.
State of play: The NHC is closely monitoring both systems as they evolve. Invest 96L is generating showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions for Invest 96L appear conducive for gradual development, with expectations that it will become a tropical depression soon.
Forecasters warn that conditions could become less favorable for development by the weekend, potentially limiting the system's strength.
Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, stated, "This is likely to become a tropical depression over the next day or two. Closer to the weekend, environmental conditions then become less favorable."
The big picture: The Atlantic hurricane season is currently experiencing a lull, prompting meteorologists to adjust their forecasts downward.
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its seasonal forecast, reducing expected named storms from previous estimates.
NOAA now anticipates seven to 13 named storms, with two to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes for the season.
The probability of a below-normal season has risen from 55% to 75%, attributed largely to the influence of El Niño.
What they're saying: Meteorologists are expressing caution about the potential for storm development this season.
Paul Dellegatto from Fox 13 noted, "It's been a real struggle this season for tropical waves to develop as they move across the Atlantic. Extensive dry air and wind shear have been the story so far this season."
Experts stress that just because a system is designated as an "invest" does not guarantee development. The NHC clarified that the designation simply indicates the need for more data collection.
The term "invest" refers to weather systems identified for potential tropical cyclone development, and it helps initiate specialized data collection and model analysis.
By the numbers: The current systems are part of a broader trend observed this hurricane season.
So far, only three named storms have formed, which is significantly below the average of 14 named storms for a typical hurricane season.
Historically, an average season sees seven hurricanes, with three reaching Category 3 strength or higher.
Forecast models predict a total of eight to eleven named storms according to AccuWeather's latest updates.
Between the lines: The influence of El Niño is a key factor in the current hurricane outlook.
El Niño, a climate pattern that develops in the Pacific, is known to increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to organize.
This year’s hurricane season has been characterized by an unusual lack of activity, raising concerns among meteorologists about the potential for future storms.
As the season progresses, the focus will remain on how these systems evolve and whether they can gain strength before facing adverse conditions.
What's next: Forecasters will continue to monitor Invest 95L and 96L as they move across the Atlantic.
Updates from the NHC are expected as conditions change, especially for Invest 96L, which has a higher chance of development.
The public is advised to stay informed about any changes in the forecast, particularly as the peak of hurricane season approaches.
With the current forecast indicating a slowdown in storm activity, meteorologists will be analyzing data closely to provide accurate predictions.