As the 2026 MLB season progresses, Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez and Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong have emerged as the betting favorites for the American League and National League MVP awards, respectively.
Why it matters: This year’s MVP race is heating up with key players facing injuries and changing odds. Alvarez’s standout performance and Crow-Armstrong’s rise have shifted the betting dynamics significantly.
Yordan Alvarez currently leads the AL MVP odds at BetMGM with -1100, indicating a 91.67% implied probability of winning.
Alvarez has maintained an impressive performance, hitting .322 with 35 home runs and 86 RBIs so far this season.
Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is now the NL MVP favorite at -125, boasting a 55.56% implied probability.
This marks the first time this year that someone other than Shohei Ohtani has led the NL MVP race, following Crow-Armstrong's strong showing against Ohtani's Dodgers.
Driving the news: Alvarez became the favorite in late May, overtaking New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who had been the frontrunner for much of the season.
Judge started the year as a +200 favorite but is currently off the board due to a stress fracture in his right rib, which has sidelined him.
His extended absence has severely impacted his chances of securing a fourth MVP trophy, a feat only achieved by Barry Bonds and Shohei Ohtani.
Alvarez’s consistent offensive production has solidified his position as the top contender in the AL.
State of play: The MVP races are characterized by fluctuating odds influenced by player performances and injuries.
Before his injury, Judge had won back-to-back MVP awards and was a strong candidate to continue his streak.
Alvarez's current statistics make him a deserving favorite, as he has never finished higher than third in any MVP race.
Crow-Armstrong’s rise comes as Ohtani struggles with injuries, impacting his performance and lowering his odds significantly.
The big picture: The competition for the MVP awards is fierce, with multiple players vying for recognition.
Alvarez is leading in home runs and batting average and in OPS+, posting an impressive figure of 197.
Crow-Armstrong has produced a bWAR of 7.5, hitting .286 with 26 home runs and 30 stolen bases, making him a formidable contender.
As both leagues approach the final stretch of the season, the performances of these players will be closely monitored.
What they're saying: Analysts are weighing in on the shifting dynamics of the MVP race.
"Alvarez is the best offensive player in the AL right now, and if he maintains this form, he will likely secure the MVP award," said a sports analyst.
"Crow-Armstrong has proven himself worthy of the MVP title, especially with Ohtani's recent struggles," another expert noted.
By the numbers: Key statistics highlight the performances of the leading MVP candidates.